ET

Summary

Buy ET (Energy Transfer LP) as a staged starter in the current consolidation zone: starter position only, add only on a daily close back above the short term average with histogram troughing and steady momentum, then on a break above recent highs confirmed by expanding volume. Keep risk tight with a closer stop and a wider stop, with hard invalidation on loss of the rising longer term average. Short term horizon; keep size smaller into the Texas listing switch and pending funding close in Q4, use taxable location for K-1, hedge only with a collar or put spread as 60% IV is expensive.

The case

1. Trend remains stacked and intact: close ~16% above the rising longer term average and ~4.6% above the rising medium term average, only ~2% below the yearly high, holding above the volume weighted average with tight ATR at about 1.5%, on a light volume -1.1% pullback well below prior spikes — consolidation in our analysis.

2. Operations support the Buy: quarterly revenue up 78% YoY, EPS $0.59, OCF up 54%, with solid coverage of interest and dividend, plus target implying about 14.9% upside plus 6.3% yield for about 21% total return potential, against limited risk to stops.

3. Momentum and balance sheet warrant staging rather than chasing: first close below the short term average, momentum cooling with histogram deepening and premium compression from above 1.5% to near 0.2%, intraday weakness with closes in the lower half of the range, mixed sentiment with elevated options implied volatility at 60%, plus thin cash, modest margin at 4.9%, elevated leverage and goodwill build, pending funding close and first ever listing move with no precedent for index and flow effects and gap risk through stops.

4. Past decisions dictate restraint that still supports Buy: dip support held twice without losing the lower support or the medium term average, but breakout attempts were capped near highs well short of the upside target, where half size discipline limited drag to -0.3% while keeping +0.2% alpha; failures came from expecting breakout and adding below resistance without a settled close on expanding volume with histogram repair. Hence Buy ET as a defined risk consolidation long: starter now, require reclaim plus histogram repair plus volume expansion before adding.

What would weaken it

• Loss of rising average with gap risk on Texas listing move
• High leverage, thin cash and pending Q4 funding close
• Momentum fade, deepening histogram and expensive 60% IV