UAMY

Summary

Sell UAMY, United States Antimony Corporation, into strength. Our analysis sees the bounce as an opportunity to exit existing longs in full on strength toward overhead resistance, with no new longs and no naked shorts. Invalidation is a settled close above the declining 50 day average with momentum holding above neutral; downside references sit lower in stages. Size is 0% target, in cash. Horizon is 5 trading days, revisiting only on operating proof.

The case

1. This is a counter trend bounce into overhead, not a reversal. Price remains below the falling 50 day average and far below the longer term average, with momentum only just reclaiming neutral and the histogram positive on recent prints but the trend signal still negative with a prior false breakout precedent and a heavy capitulation bar.

2. Fundamentals dominate. Q2 $7.9M revenue with $583k gross profit, operating loss about $7M, $110k headline profit entirely from a $6.78M security gain, normalized at -$6.7M, SG&A about equal to revenue, TTM FCF at -$63M, Q2 burn of -$18.9M versus $46M cash for limited runway, funded by $47.7M Q2 issuance and 25.4% dilution.

3. Valuation and positioning cannot support upside. A 52x forward PE and 6x book for negative 88% operating margin cannot be paid, while crowded bullish positioning with low put call activity and 135% implied volatility into a White House $250M discussion headline with no numbers, safe harbor disclosure in the filing, and a market fear gauge in fear regime points to premium crush and secondary risk.

4. Our analysis concludes a full sale to cash best preserves capital, as a partial trim leaves gap risk and adding short exposure adds squeeze risk. We require a settled close above the declining 50 day average plus cost and SG&A normalization before reconsidering.

What would weaken it

• Bounce fails under falling 50 day overhead resistance
• Further dilution/secondary on high cash burn
• Short squeeze from crowded bullish positioning