ADBE
SELLPublished once at least 12 trading days had closed after this run.
Summary
Sell ADBE tactically into strength toward overhead resistance. Keep size light due to elevated volatility, with IV 70% and 6.6% implied into earnings. Use a defined risk put spread, not a naked short, with a stop above resistance. Target lower support confluence. Horizon 5 trading days through earnings and jobs volatility.
The case
(1) Momentum broke idiosyncratically with -7% intraday versus QQQ flat, losing key short term trend support with expanding downside momentum and breaking below the midline with room lower. (2) Overhead resistance now caps bounces, leaving supply overhead near term. (3) A heavy event stack outweighs optically cheap valuation despite 89% gross margins and strong cash generation, with leadership transition and executive exit into upcoming earnings, cautious sentiment and hedging flows, warnings that AI may not monetize, higher marketing spend and a tight liquidity position. (4) Our analysis stages the Sell by trimming now and adding only on a settled close below support; there is no Hold edge as bears hold timing and supply edge short term.
What would weaken it
- Bounce holds above overhead resistance into earnings
- Cheap valuation and strong cash flow attract dip buyers
- In line earnings or leadership clarity sparks squeeze
This case is at least 12 trading days old. The current day’s signals are for members.